Rates, credit, FX & volatility: the weekly monitor
Government yields and spreads for 17 countries - the euro-area stress spreads to Germany, curves and cross-market gaps; country and credit spreads; the gap between countries' interest rates against their currencies; the dollar and volatility. Built on publicly quoted market levels and public data and published once a week.
Weekly snapshot · data to 30 October 2026 · built Saturday 31 October 2026, 10:05 CET
What stands out
- DFII10 US 10-year real yield (inflation-protected Treasury, TIPS) 2.63%: (10-year high zone)
- JP10Y Japan 10-year government bond yield 2.88%: (10-year high zone)
- US30Y US 30-year Treasury yield 5.32%: (10-year high zone)
- US10Y US 10-year Treasury yield 4.98%: (10-year high zone)
- US05Y US 5-year Treasury yield 4.78%: (10-year high zone)
- JP30Y Japan 30-year government bond yield 3.96%: (10-year high zone)
- JP05Y Japan 5-year government bond yield 2.29%: (10-year high zone)
- GB20Y UK 20-year gilt yield 5.59%: (10-year high zone)
- DE30Y Germany 30-year government bond yield 3.78%: (10-year high zone)
- EA AAA 10Y Euro-area AAA government yield, 10 years (ECB curve) 3.37%: (10-year high zone)
- DE10Y Germany 10-year government bond yield (Bund) 3.40%: (10-year high zone)
- EA AAA 5Y Euro-area AAA government yield, 5 years (ECB curve) 3.11%: (10-year high zone)
- and 24 more flags in the tables below
Pct = where today sits in the window (100 = highest). Highlight: top / bottom 15 %, bold top / bottom 5 %. 12-day sigma = the 12-day change against its own 3-year history; bold at 2 or more = an unusually fast move. Yields and spreads change in bp, prices in %.
Government yields & spreads
Last session Fri 30 Oct 2026. 17 countries; spreads in basis points; 1d / 1w / 1m = change in bp; pct = where today sits in its 1-year / 3-year range (100 = widest). STRESS marks a euro-area spread to Bunds that is near its 1-year wide and still widening.
- 10y OAT-Bund 165 bp: STRESS: 1y-wide and widening (+25 bp in 1m)
- 10y BTP-Bund 117 bp: 1y WIDEST zone
- 10y BTP-OAT -49 bp: 1y TIGHTEST zone
- 10y GGB-Bund (Greece) 98 bp: 1y WIDEST zone
- 10y OLO-Bund (Belgium) 106 bp: STRESS: 1y-wide and widening (+18 bp in 1m)
- 2y BTP-Schatz 43 bp: 1y WIDEST zone
- 2y OAT-Schatz 65 bp: 1y WIDEST zone
- 10y Gilt-Bund 197 bp: 1y-wide and widening (+10 bp in 1m)
- 2y Gilt-Schatz 185 bp: 1y-wide and widening (+11 bp in 1m)
- Gilt 2s10s 43 bp: 1y TIGHTEST zone
Spreads that tell the story
| Spread | bp | 1d | 1w | 1m | pct 1y | pct 3y | 3y low / high | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR10Y-DE10YFrance minus Germany 10-year government bond yield (OAT-Bund spread) | 165 | +8 | -1 | +25 | 99 | 100 | 43 / 175 | STRESS: 1y-wide and widening (+25 bp in 1m) |
| IT10Y-DE10YItaly minus Germany 10-year yield (BTP-Bund spread) | 117 | +0 | -7 | +0 | 99 | 61 | 59 / 187 | 1y WIDEST zone |
| IT10Y-FR10YItaly minus France 10-year yield | -49 | -8 | -5 | -24 | 1 | 0 | -50 / 128 | 1y TIGHTEST zone |
| ES10Y-DE10YSpain minus Germany 10-year yield (Bonos-Bund spread) | 62 | -2 | -7 | +0 | 93 | 44 | 36 / 110 | |
| PT10Y-DE10YPortugal minus Germany 10-year yield | 47 | -3 | -9 | -2 | 87 | 45 | 27 / 82 | |
| GR10Y-DE10YGreece minus Germany 10-year yield | 98 | +1 | -6 | -4 | 97 | 70 | 50 / 158 | 1y WIDEST zone |
| BE10Y-DE10YBelgium minus Germany 10-year yield | 106 | +4 | -3 | +18 | 99 | 100 | 37 / 111 | STRESS: 1y-wide and widening (+18 bp in 1m) |
| IT02Y-DE02YItaly minus Germany 2-year yield | 43 | +2 | -7 | -13 | 97 | 67 | 5 / 86 | 1y WIDEST zone |
| FR02Y-DE02YFrance minus Germany 2-year yield | 65 | +7 | -11 | +3 | 98 | 99 | 5 / 76 | 1y WIDEST zone |
| US02Y-DE02YUS minus Germany 2-year yield | 158 | +5 | -6 | -12 | 85 | 35 | 113 / 235 | |
| US10Y-DE10YUS minus Germany 10-year yield | 161 | +2 | -1 | -10 | 92 | 44 | 121 / 226 | |
| GB10Y-DE10YUK minus Germany 10-year yield | 197 | +1 | -5 | +10 | 91 | 73 | 151 / 230 | 1y-wide and widening (+10 bp in 1m) |
| GB02Y-DE02YUK minus Germany 2-year yield | 185 | -0 | -4 | +11 | 96 | 62 | 118 / 240 | 1y-wide and widening (+11 bp in 1m) |
| US10Y-GB10YUS minus UK 10-year yield | -36 | +1 | +4 | -21 | 50 | 25 | -66 / 41 | |
| US10Y-JP10YUS minus Japan 10-year yield | 217 | +3 | -1 | -6 | 81 | 27 | 164 / 410 | |
| US10Y-US02YUS Treasury curve: 10-year minus 2-year yield | 34 | -0 | +4 | -6 | 13 | 50 | -54 / 73 | |
| US30Y-US10YUS Treasury curve: 30-year minus 10-year yield | 38 | +1 | +5 | +3 | 13 | 52 | 8 / 70 | |
| DE10Y-DE02YGerman curve: 10-year minus 2-year yield | 31 | +3 | -1 | -16 | 7 | 44 | -54 / 86 | |
| DE30Y-DE10YGerman curve: 30-year minus 10-year yield | 36 | +0 | +2 | -3 | 8 | 49 | 11 / 70 | |
| GB10Y-GB02YUK curve: 10-year minus 2-year yield | 43 | +4 | -2 | -17 | 2 | 45 | -63 / 90 | 1y TIGHTEST zone |
| JP30Y-JP10YJapan curve: 30-year minus 10-year yield | 107 | +1 | +5 | +1 | 9 | 20 | 88 / 171 |
Countries: curve and 10y spread to Bunds
| Country | 2y | 5y | 10y | 30y | 10y 1d | 10y 1w | 10y 1m | 2s10s bp | 2s10s 1m | 10y vs Bund bp | 1w | 1m | pct 1y | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US10YUnited States - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | 4.59 | 4.73 | 4.93 | 5.31 | +1 | -4 | -36 | 34 | -6 | 161 | -1 | -10 | 92 | |
| DE10YGermany - government bond curve (the Bund benchmark) | 3.01 | 3.11 | 3.32 | 3.68 | -1 | -3 | -20 | 31 | -16 | base | ||||
| FR10YFrance - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | 3.66 | - | 4.98 | - | +7 | -4 | +4 | 131 | +6 | 165 | -1 | +25 | 99 | STRESS: 1y-wide and widening (+25 bp in 1m) |
| IT10YItaly - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | 3.44 | - | 4.49 | - | -1 | -10 | -20 | 105 | -3 | 117 | -7 | +0 | 99 | 1y WIDEST zone |
| ES10YSpain - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 3.95 | - | -3 | -10 | -20 | - | - | 62 | -7 | +0 | 93 | |
| PT10YPortugal - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 3.80 | - | -4 | -12 | -23 | - | - | 47 | -9 | -2 | 87 | |
| GR10YGreece - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 4.30 | - | +0 | -9 | -25 | - | - | 98 | -6 | -4 | 97 | 1y WIDEST zone |
| BE10YBelgium - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 4.38 | - | +3 | -6 | -3 | - | - | 106 | -3 | +18 | 99 | STRESS: 1y-wide and widening (+18 bp in 1m) |
| AT10YAustria - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 3.61 | - | -2 | -3 | -14 | - | - | 29 | -0 | +6 | 82 | |
| NL10YNetherlands - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 3.42 | - | -2 | -3 | -18 | - | - | 10 | -0 | +2 | 57 | |
| FI10YFinland - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 3.74 | - | -1 | -1 | -14 | - | - | 42 | +2 | +6 | 99 | 1y WIDEST zone |
| IE10YIreland - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 3.47 | - | -3 | -4 | -16 | - | - | 15 | -1 | +5 | 24 | |
| GB10YUnited Kingdom - gilt curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | 4.86 | 4.92 | 5.29 | 5.71 | -0 | -8 | -10 | 43 | -17 | 197 | -5 | +10 | 91 | 1y-wide and widening (+10 bp in 1m) |
| CH10YSwitzerland - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 0.47 | - | -4 | -3 | -6 | - | - | -285 | +0 | +14 | 19 | |
| JP10YJapan - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | 1.88 | - | 2.76 | 3.83 | -1 | -3 | -37 | 88 | -31 | -57 | +0 | -16 | 47 | |
| CA10YCanada - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 3.80 | - | -0 | -5 | -20 | - | - | 47 | -2 | +9 | 42 | |
| AU10YAustralia - government bond curve and 10-year spread to Bunds | - | - | 5.14 | - | +1 | -3 | -23 | - | - | 181 | -0 | -3 | 22 |
US Treasury curve
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US03MYUS 3-month Treasury bill yield | 4.18% | 29 Oct | -4 | -7 | +36 | 91 | 71 | -0.9 | |
| US02YUS 2-year Treasury yield | 4.61% | 29 Oct | -4 | -28 | +38 | 87 | 90 | -1.0 | |
| US05YUS 5-year Treasury yield | 4.78% | 29 Oct | +0 | -28 | +40 | 88 | 98 | -1.2 | |
| US10YUS 10-year Treasury yield | 4.98% | 29 Oct | +2 | -28 | +30 | 89 | 99 | -1.3 | |
| US30YUS 30-year Treasury yield | 5.32% | 29 Oct | +3 | -27 | +11 | 89 | 99 | -1.5 | |
| US10Y-US02YUS Treasury curve: 10-year minus 2-year yield · 10y minus 2y | 37 bp | 29 Oct | +6 | +0 | -8 | 18 | 50 | -0.5 | |
| US30Y-US05YUS Treasury curve: 30-year minus 5-year yield | 54 bp | 29 Oct | +3 | +1 | -29 | 10 | 43 | -0.2 | |
| US30Y-US10YUS Treasury curve: 30-year minus 10-year yield | 34 bp | 29 Oct | +1 | +1 | -19 | 8 | 44 | -0.2 | |
| US10Y-US03MYUS Treasury curve: 10-year minus 3-month yield | 80 bp | 29 Oct | +6 | -21 | -6 | 77 | 62 | -0.9 |
Euro AAA curve (ECB)
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EA AAA 3MEuro-area AAA government yield, 3 months (ECB curve) | 2.57% | 29 Oct | -1 | +5 | +17 | 97 | 81 | +0.2 | |
| EA AAA 2YEuro-area AAA government yield, 2 years (ECB curve) | 3.01% | 29 Oct | +0 | -20 | +29 | 89 | 95 | -0.5 | |
| EA AAA 5YEuro-area AAA government yield, 5 years (ECB curve) | 3.11% | 29 Oct | -2 | -24 | +25 | 87 | 99 | -0.7 | |
| EA AAA 10YEuro-area AAA government yield, 10 years (ECB curve) | 3.37% | 29 Oct | -1 | -23 | +17 | 86 | 99 | -0.9 | |
| EA AAA 30YEuro-area AAA government yield, 30 years (ECB curve) | 3.61% | 29 Oct | -1 | -22 | -3 | 73 | 97 | -1.0 | |
| EA AAA 10Y-EA AAA 2YEuro-area AAA curve (ECB): 10-year minus 2-year | 36 bp | 29 Oct | -1 | -3 | -12 | 5 | 36 | -0.5 | |
| EA AAA 30Y-EA AAA 10YEuro-area AAA curve (ECB): 30-year minus 10-year | 24 bp | 29 Oct | +0 | +2 | -20 | 4 | 30 | -0.1 |
Japan JGB curve (MOF)
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP02YJapan 2-year government bond yield | 1.90% | 29 Oct | -1 | -7 | +40 | 91 | 99 | -0.4 | |
| JP05YJapan 5-year government bond yield | 2.29% | 29 Oct | -2 | -14 | +25 | 88 | 99 | -1.0 | |
| JP10YJapan 10-year government bond yield | 2.88% | 29 Oct | -4 | -21 | +7 | 81 | 98 | -1.5 | |
| JP30YJapan 30-year government bond yield | 3.96% | 29 Oct | +0 | -17 | -2 | 75 | 98 | -1.0 | |
| JP10Y-JP02YJapan curve: 10-year minus 2-year yield | 98 bp | 29 Oct | -2 | -13 | -33 | 36 | 94 | -1.7 | |
| JP30Y-JP10YJapan curve: 30-year minus 10-year yield | 108 bp | 29 Oct | +4 | +4 | -9 | 14 | 77 | +0.5 |
Cross-market 10y
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US10Y-EA AAA 10YUS minus euro-area AAA 10-year yield (ECB curve) | 161 bp | 29 Oct | +3 | -4 | +13 | 91 | 33 | -0.8 | |
| US10Y-JP10YUS minus Japan 10-year yield | 210 bp | 29 Oct | +6 | -7 | +22 | 74 | 34 | -0.5 | |
| EA AAA 10Y-JP10YEuro-area AAA (ECB curve) minus Japan 10-year yield | 50 bp | 29 Oct | +3 | -3 | +10 | 40 | 54 | +0.2 |
Germany curve (Bundesbank, daily)
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE02YGermany 2-year government bond yield (Schatz) | 3.06% | 30 Oct | +4 | -18 | +30 | 87 | 96 | -0.3 | |
| DE05YGermany 5-year government bond yield (Bobl) | 3.14% | 30 Oct | +2 | -22 | +28 | 86 | 99 | -0.6 | |
| DE10YGermany 10-year government bond yield (Bund) | 3.40% | 30 Oct | +1 | -24 | +19 | 84 | 98 | -0.8 | |
| DE30YGermany 30-year government bond yield | 3.78% | 30 Oct | +2 | -21 | +2 | 80 | 98 | -0.9 | |
| DE10Y-DE02YGerman curve: 10-year minus 2-year yield (Bundesbank) | 34 bp | 30 Oct | -3 | -6 | -11 | 4 | 38 | -0.7 | |
| DE30Y-DE10YGerman curve: 30-year minus 10-year yield (Bundesbank) | 38 bp | 30 Oct | +1 | +3 | -17 | 7 | 37 | -0.2 |
UK gilt curve (BoE par yields, daily)
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB05YUK 5-year gilt yield | 4.96% | 28 Oct | +1 | -1 | +40 | 97 | 100 | -0.1 | |
| GB10YUK 10-year gilt yield | 5.31% | 28 Oct | -3 | -7 | +30 | 91 | 99 | -0.5 | |
| GB20YUK 20-year gilt yield | 5.59% | 28 Oct | -6 | -13 | +10 | 87 | 99 | -0.9 | |
| GB10Y-GB05YUK gilt curve: 10-year minus 5-year yield | 35 bp | 28 Oct | -4 | -7 | -10 | 0 | 47 | -1.3 |
Country spreads (daily)
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US02Y-DE02YUS minus Germany 2-year yield | 153 bp | 29 Oct | -1 | -7 | +7 | 76 | 30 | -1.1 | |
| US10Y-DE10YUS minus Germany 10-year yield | 156 bp | 29 Oct | +4 | -2 | +12 | 91 | 29 | -1.2 | |
| US05Y-GB05YUS minus UK 5-year yield | -11 bp | 28 Oct | -11 | -20 | +8 | 75 | 15 | -1.2 | |
| US10Y-GB10YUS minus UK 10-year yield | -26 bp | 28 Oct | -6 | -12 | +8 | 80 | 16 | -0.9 | |
| GB05Y-DE05YUK minus Germany 5-year yield | 178 bp | 28 Oct | +2 | +25 | +6 | 96 | 88 | +0.2 | |
| GB10Y-DE10YUK minus Germany 10-year yield | 188 bp | 28 Oct | +2 | +19 | +5 | 97 | 88 | +0.2 | |
| US02Y-JP02YUS minus Japan 2-year yield | 271 bp | 29 Oct | -3 | -20 | -2 | 75 | 59 | -0.9 | |
| DE02Y-JP02YGermany minus Japan 2-year yield | 118 bp | 29 Oct | -2 | -14 | -9 | 68 | 71 | +0.1 | |
| DE10Y-JP10YGermany minus Japan 10-year yield | 54 bp | 29 Oct | +2 | -5 | +10 | 39 | 56 | +0.6 | |
| GB10Y-JP10YUK minus Japan 10-year yield | 244 bp | 28 Oct | +3 | +14 | +19 | 75 | 66 | +0.4 |
Euro-area 10y spreads to Bunds (ECB, monthly averages)
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR10Y-DE10YFrance minus Germany 10-year government bond yield (OAT-Bund spread) | 97 bp | 01 Sep | – | +15 | +25 | 100 | 100 | – | |
| IT10Y-DE10YItaly minus Germany 10-year yield (BTP-Bund spread) | 89 bp | 01 Sep | – | +9 | +12 | 100 | 12 | – | |
| ES10Y-DE10YSpain minus Germany 10-year yield (Bonos-Bund spread) | 45 bp | 01 Sep | – | +0 | +0 | 46 | 5 | – | |
| PT10Y-DE10YPortugal minus Germany 10-year yield (monthly average) | 37 bp | 01 Sep | – | +2 | +1 | 54 | 6 | – | |
| GR10Y-DE10YGreece minus Germany 10-year yield (monthly average) | 75 bp | 01 Sep | – | +6 | +7 | 85 | 11 | – | |
| BE10Y-DE10YBelgium minus Germany 10-year yield (monthly average) | 65 bp | 01 Sep | – | +7 | +10 | 100 | 89 | – | |
| AT10Y-DE10YAustria minus Germany 10-year yield (monthly average) | 21 bp | 01 Sep | – | -1 | -3 | 8 | 9 | – | |
| NL10Y-DE10YNetherlands minus Germany 10-year yield (monthly average) | 9 bp | 01 Sep | – | -1 | -2 | 8 | 17 | – | |
| IE10Y-DE10YIreland minus Germany 10-year yield (monthly average) | 12 bp | 01 Sep | – | -5 | -4 | 8 | 1 | – | |
| FI10Y-DE10YFinland minus Germany 10-year yield (monthly average) | 33 bp | 01 Sep | – | -1 | -2 | 8 | 45 | – | |
| 10y UST-OAT · US monthly average | 55 bp | 01 Sep | – | -14 | -24 | 8 | 1 | – | |
| 10y UST-BTP · US monthly average | 63 bp | 01 Sep | – | -7 | -11 | 46 | 75 | – |
Inflation, real yield, policy
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T5YIEUS 5-year breakeven inflation (Treasury minus TIPS yield) | 2.46% | 30 Oct | -2 | +10 | +20 | 67 | 78 | +1.0 | |
| T10YIEUS 10-year breakeven inflation (Treasury minus TIPS yield) | 2.34% | 30 Oct | +0 | -2 | +6 | 66 | 75 | -0.1 | |
| DFII10US 10-year real yield (inflation-protected Treasury, TIPS) | 2.63% | 29 Oct | -1 | -28 | +22 | 89 | 99 | -1.8 | |
| EFFRUS effective federal funds rate (overnight) | 3.88% | 29 Oct | +0 | +0 | +25 | 96 | 71 | +0.0 | |
| SOFRSecured overnight financing rate (US overnight repo) | 3.94% | 29 Oct | +4 | +6 | +29 | 92 | 66 | +0.5 |
Credit spreads (ICE BofA OAS, FRED: 3 years only)
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAMLH0A0HYM2US high-yield corporate bond spread over Treasuries (ICE BofA) | 326 bp | 29 Oct | -14 | +18 | +42 | 95 | – | +0.4 | |
| BAMLH0A3HYCUS CCC-rated corporate bond spread over Treasuries (ICE BofA) | 1325 bp | 29 Oct | -15 | +168 | +319 | 98 | – | +1.1 | |
| BAMLC0A0CMUS investment-grade corporate bond spread over Treasuries (ICE BofA) | 89 bp | 29 Oct | +0 | +5 | +9 | 96 | – | +1.1 | |
| BAMLHE00EHYIOASEuro high-yield corporate bond spread (ICE BofA) | 348 bp | 29 Oct | -6 | +54 | +83 | 98 | – | +1.0 | |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2-BAMLC0A0CMUS high-yield minus investment-grade corporate spread | 237 bp | 29 Oct | -14 | +13 | +33 | 95 | – | +0.2 |
USD, volatility, equities
| Series | Last | Date | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | Pct 1y | Pct 10y | 12-day sigma | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DX1!US Dollar Index future (ICE US, front contract) · ICE futures, rolls quarterly | 101.83 | 30 Oct | +0.2% | +0.6% | +2.1% | 96 | 71 | -0.4 | |
| DTWEXBGSBroad US dollar index vs trading partners (Federal Reserve) · weekly release | 121.32 | 23 Oct | -0.1% | +1.0% | +0.5% | 91 | 78 | +0.3 | |
| VIXCBOE volatility index (expected S&P 500 swings) | 17.20 | 29 Oct | -9.6% | +7.2% | +0.6% | 52 | 52 | +0.4 | |
| SPXS&P 500 index (500 largest US companies) | 7,720 | 29 Oct | +0.7% | +0.6% | +3.8% | 90 | 99 | -0.5 |
Rate gaps vs currencies (2y-2y style)
Gap = first country's yield minus the second's. FX oriented so that UP = the first currency stronger (USD vs EUR = 1 / EURUSD). Correlation = 6 months of weekly changes, gap vs FX. Dates: the last day both exist. Context only, not a tested signal.
| Currencies | Tenor | Gap | Gap 1 month | Gap pct 1y | FX 1 month | Corr 6m | Last month | Gap 1y | FX 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSDUS dollar vs euro (1 / EURUSD) against the US minus German yield gap | 2y | 153 bp | -7 | 76 | +1.4% | +0.21 | gap little changed | ||
| EURUSDUS dollar vs euro (1 / EURUSD) against the US minus German yield gap | 10y | 156 bp | -2 | 91 | +1.4% | +0.35 | gap little changed | ||
| EURGBPBritish pound vs euro (1 / EURGBP) against the UK minus German yield gap | 5y | 178 bp | +25 | 96 | +2.5% | +0.09 | FX followed the gap | ||
| GBPUSDUS dollar vs British pound (1 / GBPUSD) against the US minus UK yield gap | 5y | -11 bp | -20 | 75 | -0.5% | +0.50 | FX followed the gap | ||
| USDJPYUS dollar vs Japanese yen against the US minus Japan yield gap | 2y | 271 bp | -20 | 75 | +0.3% | +0.36 | FX did NOT follow the gap | ||
| USDJPYUS dollar vs Japanese yen against the US minus Japan yield gap | 10y | 210 bp | -7 | 74 | +0.3% | -0.03 | gap little changed | ||
| EURJPYEuro vs Japanese yen against the German minus Japan yield gap | 2y | 118 bp | -14 | 68 | -1.2% | +0.21 | FX followed the gap | ||
| GBPJPYBritish pound vs Japanese yen against the UK minus Japan yield gap | 5y | 268 bp | +15 | 97 | +0.8% | +0.25 | FX followed the gap |
Important information
Free research, work in progress. We share this page free of charge as part of our research. It is an experimental overview that we publish once a week while we develop it; it may change, be paused or be withdrawn at any time without notice, and it may contain errors.
Data. Daily government bond yields for 17 countries and the spreads built from them (the Government yields & spreads section) are publicly quoted market levels from our market data feeds. All other figures come from publicly available sources: U.S. Treasury yields, breakevens, real yields, policy rates, the broad dollar index, VIX and the S&P 500 via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (© ICE Data Indices, LLC) via FRED; the euro-area AAA curve and euro-area country 10-year yields (monthly averages) from the European Central Bank; German yields from the Deutsche Bundesbank; UK gilt par yields from the Bank of England; JGB yields from the Japan Ministry of Finance; FX from publicly available broker quotes. Third-party data remain the property of their owners and are shown for information only.
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Timing. This is a weekly snapshot: data to 30 October 2026, page built Saturday 31 October 2026, 10:05 CET. It is not updated intraday or daily, it may be out of date when you read it, and we have no obligation to update or correct it.
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